Fantasy NBA tricks and tips

[tanat-0s 0]

Я довольно много думал на тему того о чем буду писать в первом посте и пришел к выводу, что делать мануал для новичков "Как начать играть в фэнтези НБА" мне неинтересно. Подобного рода информацию довольно легко найти в других местах, да и драйва никакого нет в том чтобы в сотый раз описывать азбучные истины. Мой фентези-блог будет (если будет) не об этом. Любой может играть в фантазийку на самом деле: выставлять состав, драфтоваться, менять игроков и даже иногда выигрывать. Но вот выигрывать постоянно - это задача, которая по силам лишь немногим. Что для этого требуется? Пойдем по порядку.

Усердие.

Чтобы добиться успехов в чем-то надо уделять этому чему-то время, силы и ресурсы. Это закон жизни. Чтобы добиться успеха в фантазийке, необходимо то же самое.

1) Время - 1-1,5 часа в день (в зависимости от количества лиг). Каждый день. Анализ боксскоров, выставление состава, чтение новостей. Боксскор, т.е. статистика - твой самый главный друг. Боксскор надо любить. А чтобы его любить надо его правильно понимать, впрочем к этому мы еще вернемся в следующих выпусках.

2) Силы - фантазийка это тебе не шахматы, тут дуумать надо. Часто и много. Причем иногда с помощью подручных средств: листа, ручки, Экселя, а для самых продвинутых - специальных комп. программ, типа NBA Explorera (атеншен продакт-плейсмент!). Я уже говорил, что статистика - твой самый главный друг? Второй твой главный друг - это твоя голова, вернее то что в ней находится. Знания, чувак, знания - это пули, которыми ты заряжаешь пистолет своего мозга (с). В данном случае не какие-то абстрактные познания, типа знания теории струн или квантовой физики, а вполне конкретные - касающиеся НБА: игроков, команд и тренеров, их сильных и слабых сторон, того что они умеют и чего не умеют.

Отдельной строчкой надо выделить еще знание - знание английского языка, хотя бы на уровне пригодном для чтения новостей. НБА - это американская лига, а в Америке пишут на английском, соотвественно, если ты хочешь опередить своих более невежественных коллег, то надо бы поднасесть на учебники, я не знаю.

3) Ресурсы. Помимо потраченного времени и загубленного у монитора здоровья, неплохо бы потратить кое-какое количество дензнаков на покупку того, что может дать тебе преимущество перед другими игроками или просто облегчить жизнь, типа Лайв Статс на Яху или того же НБА Эксплорера (ролл, ты мне уже 25% торчишь за рекламу). Впрочем для неимущих или жадных чуваков тоже есть выход, о котором я сообщу ниже.

Итак, с базой вроде разобрались. Хотя... Стоп! Я же обещал помочь неимущим братьям из гетто. Братьям же надо помогать, u know i mean? Итак, то без чего твоя жизнь в качестве фантазийного менеджера будет неполной и насыщенной страданиями:

Ссылки.

http://basketballmonster.com/ - Собственно предтеча NBA Explorera если я не ошибаюсь. Удобный, мощный, и понятный в использовании инструмент.

1) Player Rankings. Выбираешь категории, позиции, количество игроков и команд - нажимаешь на кнопку и получаешь базовый рейтинг для любой лиги.

2) Schedule Grid. Календарь - для недельных лиг вещь незаменимая.

3) Ease Rankings. Тоже полезная вещь, показывающая против каких команд легче всего набирать статы. Иногда помогает при выставлении состава.

Все остальное только за очень большие деньги.

Надеюсь ролл меня не забанит за это.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playernews.aspx?sport=NBA - Лента фантазийных новостей. Их вообще несколько, но мне нравится это. Во-первых дизайном, во-вторых, там можно делать выборку по командам.

Это два основных инструмента необходимых для игры. Остальное - по вкусу.

Что дальше? Дальше - драфт. Сначала общие рекомендации, потом моя стратегия с прошлого года. Высказываемся.

[AlexT 0]

ИМХО, программа у Ролла раз в 10 круче баскетмонстра. Без нее я бы в прошлом году никак не стал чемпионом Алл-стар лиги. Да и в драфте она очень полезна (вот придется брать ноутбук в отпуск, чтоб на берегу моря сидеть и анализировать че ж там кто выбирает).

А времени действительно уходит очень много, особенно в воскресенье, когда надо выставлять составы.

[clyde 441]

учебники не обязательны. есть перводчики-онлайн. вполне прокатит.

и еще чуйка. очень много от нее зависит.

[clyde 441]

а за ссылки реально спасибо. не было в коллекции. "добавиьт в избранное".

[Гость]

Theory of H2H Drafting

by Haiwei Wang (ADWCTA) — August 28, 2007

Introduction

This guide will not tell you which picks to make. If you are new to fantasy, this guide will be very confusing and you will likely miss the point. But give it a try anyway, it couldn’t hurt and some things are really pretty basic. That being said, in an experienced environment where every minute detail in a draft will be re-hashed and beaten to death, it is certainly important to know at least as much, if not more, about the intricacies of your draft than your opponents. However, a good draft does not guarantee victory, and a bad draft does not guarantee failure; they merely help. The majority of your skill as a fantasy manager is really about the predictions and pickups/trades you make throughout the season. Note that this guide was written for H2H leagues with a standard 9 categories and 12 players, 13 positions (also known as Yahoo Standard Format). Enjoy!

Fundamental Theory of Drafting

The fundamental theory of drafting is merely this: “Draft the player that will contribute the most to your team immediately.” Of course, this presumes that you know what your team will be focused on and that you have a coherent strategy in drafting. Why not pick the best player available? Simple, if the player is available then no one wants him. At this point, he has low value as trade bait. No players in an experienced environment will “slip under the radar” except for 10th round and lower. If no one has picked Dwight Howard that means no one in your league wants Howard that much. So if you don’t need Howard either, then let him keep falling. Picking him for “value” will do you no good as you cannot trade him anytime soon. The second part of the theory is the word “immediately.” Players who you believe will contribute more as the season goes on have low value now. Without a good starting performance, you can usually trade for those players at a lower value or in some cases with a smaller draft, even find them on the waiver wire. This is not a good way to use a pick. Instead, generally stick with players you know will do well at the start of the season. Build up a lead against your opponents and then adjust as the season moves on. This will average out to a better record at the end of the season. Additionally, it is hard to be sure that a player will improve as the season goes on due to the possibilities of injuries and trades. This is not a worthy risk.

Strategy

What exactly is a draft “strategy”? Most people believe this to mean ranking all NBA players into a giant list and following the list with some consideration to positions. This is not a good “strategy” for an advanced level. While certain players in the first few rounds are always tradable commodities, you will find that for the most part, trades are rather difficult to pull off. If you draft a cohesive “team” straight from the get go, you will stand a huge advantage in the beginning and can focus on making good offers for the one or two players you still “want” instead of “need.” Instead of the traditional list, a better method is to form separate lists for each individual “build” you want for a team. Then, while drafting, you will know that the players on your list are all good players for your build. Additionally, it is easier if you rank the players by how much they help your team rather than their actual value. Have a list for actual value on the side for reference during the draft, but your main list should be a personal value-based list so through comparison, you can see if you can sleep on those players which greatly help your team but might not be so great on other people’s teams.

Cohesive Team

A cohesive team is a team that focuses on certain statistics and ignores others. A good rule of thumb is to excel in at least 2 statistical categories and ignore no more than 2. The fewer categories you ignore, the more flexible your team becomes. However, flexible teams will lose to heavily focused teams. The perfect balance depends on how many statistics you wish to excel at, as the more stats you excel at, the more stats you can ignore. For example, if we plan on building a team around Lebron James, we might easily solve his free throw percentage (FT%) problem by ignoring the stat category ft%. In this case, we will then surround him with cheaper players who are not too good at FT% (i.e. Shaq, Big Ben, Jason Richardson). We then see that we get a natural boost in rebounds and blocks. Thus, it is only natural that we will try to excel in rebounds and blocks. Shaq and Lebron are also both good passers, so if you so choose, you might add Jason Kidd to our team to cover assists. Note that you will be hard pressed create a cohesive team without ignoring at least one category. Easily ignored categories include turnovers (TO), field goal percentage (FG%), FT%, three-pointers-made (3PM) and blocks as there are players who play all positions who are not especially good at those categories but excel at others. Rebounds would be a difficult category to ignore since all big men rebound at least decently. The general rule of thumb is that for each category you ignore, you MUST excel in at least one other category. So if you choose to ignore FT% and TO, you must excel in at least two other categories and remain competitive in the rest.

Injury Insurance (FG%, FT%, TO)

Every category is worth one point right? So naturally it should make no difference whether I ditch FG% or assists. Well, that's not entirely true. While each category is weighed equally in determining your final score, your team will be affected differently when injuries start hitting your team. For example, if you're relying on Billups' amazing FT% to negate Lebron's poor FT%, having Billups injured will severely hurt your FT%. On the other hand, if your entire team shoots around 80% from the line, a hurt Billups will hardly make a dent in your FT% for the week (note: replacing him with a low FT% player will still hurt, so you must replace him with another 80% FT shooter). Also, if you've ditched turnovers, and Wade gets injured, chances are, your team will still lose the turnovers category, and now also the points category as well due to the injury. As such, these three categories deserve special attention. Turnovers are your saving grace if major injuries befall your top players; ditching this category is to be done with caution. Further, having a consistent FG% and FT% (where every major contributer to the category shoots a similar %) is a great way to mitigate the effects of injuries. Note that on the reverse side, it is especially hard to find good value players all with the same FG%, FT%, while having low turnovers. Depending on your draft position and player availability, it is usually not recommended that you fully injury-proof your team. Just know that all else being equal, you should shoot for stable FG% and FT%, along with low turnovers.

Positions

Centers are rare and valuable. If you can draft a good center, many of your problems are solved. If you can’t, I cannot stress enough how imperative it is that you have 3 Centers (unless you choose to ignore rebounds/blocks). Centers take two starting spots and if you have no rotation, that’s one less game your players can play every time one of your two centers does not have a game. This usually amounts to 1-3 games lost per week, which can defiantly be the difference between a category won or lost. You do not want to be the guy in the 13th round drafting Spencer Hawes because you only have 1 center. Similarly, make sure you have at least 4 Forwards and 4 Guards and that at least two of your players can play each guard or forward position.

Contract Years

Every year random players explode onto the scene and others drastically improve. These are usually the players with expiring contracts. So, go find out which players have expiring contracts. Value them higher (especially if they're players in their prime or approaching it). It’s that simple. A chance to explode is always worth extra consideration. This season, Bonzi Wells, Monta Ellis, Kwame Brown, Ricky Davis, and Antawn Jamison are a few of the top players up for new contracts.

Injuries/Suspensions

Don’t think about them. Injuries happen. Yes they happen to some players more than others, but they are impossible to predict. Ironically, oft-injured players such as Ilgauskas have had the best treatment in the NBA, and thus get injured less often and for less time. Do not try to predict the next Elton Brand in order to avoid him. It will backfire more often than it will help. Draft players who fit your team. Note that this does not apply to the chronic injuries like Camby and Grant Hill. Those players will miss games. That is a fact that even they acknowledge. Players like Webber and Baron Davis, however, do not fall under this category. They have shown no reasons to become injured again. The increased chances of them getting injured due to surgically repaired body parts are negligible compared to season ending injuries that random athletes all suffer and you should treat them as healthy. Suspensions also fall under this category. If a player is often suspended, take that into account (i.e. Artest). If he received a random suspension like Carmelo, don’t think twice about it.

Risks

Projects are risks: if they don’t pan out, don’t keep them. If you plan on drafting a project, make sure it’s a hit or miss. A “hit or miss” is a player that you can recognize in the first 2 weeks whether he deserves to be on your team. Picking a player who will eventually “improve” but hurt your team for the first month is not good. Let another player draft him, drop him, and you can pick him off the free agent list once he shows signs of fantasy worth. That being said, your draft needs risks. Your draft needs risks that don’t pan out. Definitely be sure to include a few “hit or misses” in the later portion of your draft. This frees up spots that you can easily drop for early season surprises like Garbajosa last season.

Draft Day Trades

If the team you are trying to build requires Wade, but you have the 3rd pick of the draft, then by all means, if your league allows swapping of draft positions, swap down to pick #6, where you can still get Wade but get better later picks. The same goes for individual picks, however those are messy and not many leagues allow them.

Unknowns

An “unknown” is a player in a new situation he has never been in before. This includes major trades, free agent additions, major coaching changes, and rookies. These players are always risks and they will be picked within a wide spectrum of rounds. In lower rounds, make sure the unknowns you pick are in the “hit or miss” category. In higher rounds, I recommend valuing those players at lower values than expected. Although it may seem counterintuitive not to jump at Lewis in his improved fantasy situation, you never know how a player will fit in with a team and while avoiding him is tough, do not be the guy who drafts him as if he was the second coming of Dirk. The general rule is to not pick those guys too early, and only pick them if they drop a bit.

Sleeping

Although this is very difficult to pull off, it is useful. To sleep on a player means that although you would feel fine picking Lamar Odom with your 3rd round pick, you think you can still get him on the 4th round. This in essence gives you two 3rd round picks. Sleeping on known players should only be used at the almost corners in draft position (2nd, 3rd, 10th, 11th). Unknown players however, may slip a bit more. Sleeping becomes easier to pull off if you have a cohesive strategy since your player values are already different from the general consensus player values. If you have a cohesive strategy, in a normal draft, you should feel as if you drafted four or five 1st/2nd round picks.

Observation

If your opponent is following this guide or a similar one, you should be able to tell pretty quickly which players he might be interested in. Observing how other teams are built will help you predict who you might be able to sleep on. Note that not all players are drafted based on a coherent strategy.

Early Draft (rounds 1-4)

This is the stage where you define your team. Round 1, always pick the best player available who you believe, in regards to your draft position, will be able to provide a solid foundation for making a good team. For example, if you’re planning on giving up FT%, and you’re thinking of picking Lebron at #3, but you don’t think Duncan will still be around at #22 for you, then either don’t pick Lebron or use a different strategy. If Nash falls to you at pick #11, but you have no idea how to make a team with him, then don’t pick him. Your round 2-4 picks should directly compliment your first pick and any experienced observer should now be able to tell what stat you are ignoring and probably which ones you are trying to excel at. At least one center in the Early Draft is usually a good policy as well, if only as insurance.

Mid Draft (5-8)

These picks should feel as if they are early round picks for you, because due to your strategy, these are the exact players you want anyway. Again, taking risks here is not advised. It is still too early for more than one hit or miss pick.

Late Draft (9-13)

Here is where you must have at least 2 hit or misses. You should still be able to snag a few role players that are just perfect for your team, and then take a few hit or misses for trade value later on or for the possibility of helping your team. Also, make sure you have 3 centers by now. If you don’t, get them. Hit and miss centers should not count towards your total of 3 centers.

Parting Words

Even hardcore fantasy basketball can be fun! If you really like Iverson, then by all means draft him. Just make sure you build your team around him and choose the right categories to ignore. Hint: it’s not points. You can build a successful team based on any of the top 20 players. Have fun with it!

[FCSM 0]

1. Дим, у нас всё же русский ресурс, давай писать по-русски, такая добрая половина (а в действительности гораздо больше) не смогут это перевести.

2. Алекс, спасибо что напомнил - я бы и сам забыл взять с собой дисочек с НБА Эксплорером) - уезжаю до 6ого